Investment Lessons Learned from Crocs
By Michael Cintolo
Believe it or not, when it comes to investing, I not a big reader of news and opinion pieces prefer to listen to the market itself. I usually check the headlines but that about it. (Company specific news is different; I do check the news on all my stocks each day, just to know what going on.)
But I couldn help noticing when, on a major news website mbt chapa the other day, I saw the headline, crocs could be on last legs, with a subtitle that read million foam clogs were sold in 7 years, but the firm is now in trouble. It made me a little sad but also reminded me of a couple of the most important lessons for investors.
Crocs (CROX), the company, always seemed to be the butt of many jokes. After all, the company simply made shoes, and their traditional clogs were generally very cheap mbt shoes ugly yellow, pink or orange, among other colors. By 2006, knockoff shoes were already hitting the market. I honestly don know anyone that really loved Crocs; at best, most people thought they were cute for little kids.
Amid this sentiment, we recommended the stock in October 2006 at a price of 16.
Criteria that DON matter include what everyone thinks of the company. In fact, there usually an inverse correlation with young mbt shoes uk growth stocks performance, and common perception among investors more it hated, the better the chance it has to become a big winner as those early doubters eventually change their minds.
And many did just that, as CROX soared from 16 to as high as 75 within the next year. It was a good bull market, but this one was one of the best glamor stocks out there, rewarding early investors in a big way. We sold a third of our shares mbt shoes for women that June around 45, but held the rest until we saw clear signs of a top. That sign came on November 1, right after the company reported earnings.
On its earnings news by the way, was terrific, with sales and earnings up 130% and 144%, respectively, well ahead of estimates stock plummeted, falling 36%. In one day! After a heady advance, that was a clear signal the run was over. We sold all our shares the next day.
Of timberland nellie boots course, with CROX down that much in such a short period of time, and on news, most investors had trouble selling their shares. And that brings up another lesson stock, no matter how good the story, is going to top out. Every single one! When these leaders top out, on average, they fall 70% from their peak before bottoming. That is a historical fact. As it turns out, CROX went straight down after gapping lower, eventually falling timberland earthkeeper chukka to 80 cents a share!
All of this leads to last week article, which stated that Crocs lost a whopping $185 million last year (I think that included some charges), laid off 2,000 workers and had to scramble to find ways to pay off its debt. Even now, Crocs future is in doubt; sales were down 32% last quarter, earnings were a negative 27 cents a share, and the stock, now just above 3, is still down 95% from its all time high.
Now, timberland boots outlet I be lying if I told you I predicted CROX would fall so far, so fast. What happened to the company, however, wasn unforeseen times consumer product companies that experience explosive growth end up expanding way too fast. And when things hit the fan, it turns out the company has too much inventory, too many employees and too much cost everywhere.
However, the trick is not to jump the gun. In the case of Crocs, many casque bluetooth of the early bears of the stock were eventually proved right but in reality, where did that get them? The stock quintupled during its bull run before it collapsed. And that leads to the most important lesson of all a sound system of rules and tools to guide you in the marketplace. Without them, not only might you miss an opportunity to own a stock like Crocs on the way up, you might get in way too late and hold it on the way down.